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BNP Paribas highlights that European Union exports to China fell sharply in 2025, while exports to nearby partners such as Türkiye, Morocco, Ukraine and the Balkans increased.

Societe Generale analysts describe Brent as having broken out of a large base and accelerated towards $120 before a steep pullback. The contract is holding above $81, with an upside gap near $93.80 and the $120 pivot high seen as a key hurdle.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues the US Dollar is supported in the short term by haven flows and elevated Dollar funding needs during market stress.

In interviews with CNBC and CNN reported by Reuters, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that any release of Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would likely take the form of swaps, designed to address short-term supply disruptions without direct costs to taxpayers.

TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes that Shanghai silver arbitrage signals strong Chinese demand, contrasting with cautious Western investors after the Iran conflict. London OTC markets are still absorbing flows and lease rates point to better availability.

TD Securities strategist Pooja Kumra notes that ECB officials have turned more hawkish as energy‑driven inflation risks re‑emerge, but the bank’s base case is still for only one rate hike toward late 2026.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights the Australian Dollar as a key G10 outperformer, supported by strong RBA hike expectations and high Oil prices. Markets now assign a 70% probability to a 25bp hike next week, with AUD/USD seen targeting 0.7200 if equities hold up.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that despite shifting rate expectations elsewhere in G10, surveys show BoJ watchers still expect a rate hike by the end of June.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan highlight that a Strait of Hormuz closure would hit India through Oil, Liquified Petroleum Gas and Natural Gas Liquids shortages, with spillovers to fertiliser, food production and inflation.

USD/JPY trades around 158.90 on Thursday at the time of writing, showing little change on the day.