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Societe Generale economists highlight that Iran‑related energy fallout is pressuring households and growth, with limited fiscal space for large support.

DBS Group economist Philip Wee highlights that EUR/USD fell 4% to 1.1415 in early March as Iran-related tensions boosted safe-haven Dollar demand. Markets price two ECB hikes in June and September, and unless the ECB pushes back, EUR/USD is expected to find support near 1.1390.

ING’s Chris Turner expects the Dollar to stay supported as the Middle East conflict keeps Oil prices elevated and markets await central bank responses. He sees this week’s FOMC meeting as Dollar-positive, with the Federal Reserve likely to push back against current rate-cut pricing.

On Monday, attention in Canada will turn to the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $78.94 per troy ounce, down 2.07% from the $80.60 it cost on Friday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps four-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The USD/INR pair trades lower to near 92.70 as the Indian Rupee rebounds amid speculation that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the South African Rand has been one of the clear losers from the Iran conflict, hurt by weaker precious metals exports and higher imported energy costs.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights a bullish breakout in the US Dollar index above its 96.000–100.00 range, supported by surging Oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades firmly against its major currency pairs, except the antipodeans, during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair is down 0.26% to near 159.30 at the start of the busy central banks’ week.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a second consecutive 25 bps hike to 4.10%, though it is described as a close call. Futures imply slightly better than even odds of a move.